2 September 2014

Russian sanctions boomerang?

While yesterday everyone was focusing on the ongoing escalation in Ukraine, or BBQing, the real story was the sudden and quite dramatic collapse, or as we called it, "bloodbath" in global manufacturing as tracked by various PMI indices. Here, via Bank of America, is the bottom line: as the below table shows, out of the 26 countries that have reported so far, 9 reported improvements in their manufacturing sectors in August, while 15 recorded a weakening, and 2 remained unchanged. A reading above 50 reflects expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
In this regard, there were 5 countries in negative territory and 21 in positive. In particular, Brazil, Greece, Korea and Turkey moved from contraction to expansion, while Australia and Italy did the reverse. The biggest concern: virtually every core and pierphral Eurozone country of note (from France and Germany to Spain and Italy) saw substantial contraciton. Which, as is well-known in the New Normal, is the stuff new all time S&P500 highs are made of.